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2015 NFL Games of the Week


2015 NFL Games of the Week

 

NFL Week 15 Game of the Week

The 4–9 Detroit Lions face the 5–8 Saints tonight in the Mercedes-Benz Super-Dome. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown 9 touchdowns vs. one interception in his last three games as well as tossing 11 touchdowns vs. 2 picks in the past five weeks. Including playoffs, Stafford has put up some huge numbers against the Saints, averaging 362.3 yards passing in the past three meetings. Detroit is last in the league in running the ball averaging 79.3 yards per game so I’m expecting an aerial display tonight.

New Orleans ranks last in the league in points allowed at 30.5 per game and they’re 31st in total yards surrendered at 414.8 YPG. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 3,624 passing yards and a league-high 36 touchdowns against the Saints and hold a 114.2 passer rating while throwing just 6 interceptions.

The Saints have been anything but spectacular of late when playing at  home with the exception of prime time contests. Drew Brees has thrown for 795 yards with 6 touchdowns vs. 1 interception in his last two Monday Night appearances plus the team has won 16 out of 17 prime time games, (including playoffs.)

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • As a host the Saints are scoring and allowing an average of  64.1 PPG this season.
  • When playing at home New Orleans is first in Red Zone efficiency scoring a touchdown on 75% of their opportunities.
  • The Lions have been excellent on the road in the Red Zone this season as well scoring a touchdown on 70% of their opportunities.
  • As stated earlier in this report, the Lions cannot run the ball and I note the Saints are 18 – 06 to the over when playing at home vs. teams that average 90 or less rushing yards per game.
  • New Orleans has been poor in covering kick-offs allowing an average or 24 or more yards per return. Detroit is 48–24 to the over when facing all teams with this liability.
  • The Lions score and allow an average of 48.5 PPG in dome games this season while the Saints average 60.4 for a combined average of just under 55 points per contest.
  • Recent form has non division Monday night games sailing over the total at a 5–0 clip as long as the posted total was 50 or more.
  • When the O/U has been between 45 to 59 points these two teams are 4–2 to the over.
  • My NFL Game of the Week is on the Lions and Saints to sal over the total of 51 points -122

 

NFL Week 12 Game of the Week, 1:00 ET

The 5–5 New York Giants are 2.5 point road favorites at the 4–6 Washington Redskins. The Giants return off their bye week while the Redskins got thumped, (44–16,) last week at Carolina vs. the Panthers. With the Eagles loss on Thanksgiving to the Lions and the Cowboys playing the remainder of the season without Romo, the NFC–East would appear to favor the Giants winning the division title.

Home apparently is where the heart is for Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins as he is third in the NFL with a 68.3% completion percentage.

Cousins said, "Because its home, because you're in a friendly environment, a familiar environment."

Cousins has 9 touchdown passes and no interceptions with a 122.6 passer rating in their four game home winning streak. When playing away from home Cousins has five touchdowns and has been picked off 8 times with a 69.8 rating in five road games.

Manning has a new “old” target in Hakeem Nicks, who was signed November 17. This is second go around with the Giants after being out of football since the start of the season. Nicks had two 1,000-yard seasons with New York between 2009–2013 before injuries derailed him last year when playing for the Colts. Manning has 10 touchdowns in his last three starts and 21 overall tying him for fourth in the league. Odell Beckham Jr. has 339 receiving yards with four scores in that span. Beckham also has four touchdowns in two games against Washington.

View From the 50 yard Line

  • Eli Manning is 16–06 straight up vs. the Redskins as well as 14–08 ATS.
  • Kirk Cousins is 03–12 straight up and 05–10 ATS when the O/U is between 43.5 to 50.5
  • The Giants are 5–0 straight up and ATS in their last  5 games vs. the Redskins.
  • Tom Coughlin is 20–05 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins ATS as the Giants’ head coach.
  • The Redskins are 11–23 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons.
  • Play against home teams when the line is + or – 3 points after allowing 30 or more points in their last game and playing against an opponent that’s off a loss by 3 or less points. This system is 50 – 22 = 69% ATS since 1983 plus 15–05 the past decade.
  • My NFL Game of the Week is on the New York Giants – 2.5 points at –103.

 

NFL Week 11 Game of the Week, 8:30 ET

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals

The Bengals finally lost a game, it was at home vs. the Houston Texans this past Monday. Usually when a team is 5–0 or better straight up, the following game, (tonight vs. the Cardinals,) has been a disappointment for said team and supported by a time tested system. With injuries being a concern to Arizona’s passing game I have opted to make a play on the first half rather than play the full game. Apparently WR Floyd will play so I’m hoping they will be able to utilize his pass catching ability in the first half or perhaps use Ellington out of the backfield.

View From the 50 Yard Line

In a game involving two very good teams with each team outscoring their opponents by 7+ PPG, play against the road team in the first half after scoring 14 points or less in their last game. This system is 22–04 = 85% ATS when playing against the Bengals in the first half. My NFL Game of the Week is to take the Cardinals at –3 in the first half.

 

 

NFL Week 9 Game of the Week, 1:00 ET

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Raiders have surprised many this year including myself and they stand at 4–3 straight up and actually have a better straight up record than the Steelers at 4–4. Pittsburgh has lost their star running back so they’ll have to rely on DeAngelo Williams just as they were forced to do in week’s 1 and 2 when Bell was dealing with his suspension. Big Ben was rusty last week, perhaps due to the clocks moving backward by one hour. Speaking of time changes, how about the Raiders playing an early clock start which equates to 10 am Pacific Time in this 1:00 Eastern Time kick-off. When playing east in the early hours the Raiders are 1–15 straight up and 6–10 ATS.

View From the 50 yard Line.

  • The Steelers have held the Patriots, Cardinals and most recently the Bengals to their lowest point totals of the season. Last week Cincinnati was only able to amass 296 total yards and 16 points vs. a rusty Roethlisberger.
  • The Raiders are 4-18 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992.
  • Play against road underdogs in the first half when off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog. This system is 34–12 = 74% ATSthe past 10 seasons as well as 8–0 ATS the most recent three seasons.
  • My NFL Game of the Week is on the Pittsburgh Steelers at –3 in the first half.
     

 

NFL Week 8 Game of the Week, 1:00 ET

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

The Houston Texans parted ways with Ryan Mallett this past week and added T. J. Yates and unfortunately they also lost Adrian Foster for the remainder of the season. Houston won't be 100% healthy on defense with two key starters as JJ Watt sat out practice early in this week with a "minor back issue" but said he expects to play. Linebacker Jadeveon Clowney has been fighting a sickness as well but might be on the field.

As for the Titans they are without their starting quarterback, Marcus Mariota as Zack Metinger will start in his place.Mettenberger went 22 of 35 for 187 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in his place. He was also the starter in each of Tennessee's two losses to Houston last season, including a 45-21 road defeat November 30.

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • The Titans are fifth in total defense allowing 324.3 YPG and second against the pass allowing 195.2 YPG. They are also holding opponents to an average of 23.2 points per game.
  • The Texans are 4-13 ATS after playing their last game on the road.
  • After losing 5 consecutive games, play on road teams in the month of November. This system is 46-19 = 71% ATS since 1993.
  • Play on road teams when off back-to-back games while scoring 14 or less PPG when a road dog of +3.5 to +4 points vs. a team that allowed 30 or more points in their last game. This system is 23-06 = 79% ATS including 8 consecutive covers. Greg's NFL Game of the Week is on the Tennessee Titans at +4.

 

NFL Week 7 Game of the Week

Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams, 1:00 ET

Todd Gurley should be able to move the ball on the ground for the Rams as he faces a Cleveland defense that is the worst in the league at stopping the run. In his last two games Gurley has totaled 305 yards on 49 carries. Gurley has two rushes for at least 50 yards while the rest of the league has combined for a total of six. Now for the bad news, The Rams average a league worst 309.0 yards per game and their passing attack is ranked second worst at 183.2. Quarterback Nick Foles has the league's 29th best passer rating at 77.6. IF St. Louis is able to establish the run successfully they should have success vs. a Browns defense that will be without Joe Haden.

The Browns’ run defense is a major reason why they are ranked 30th in total defense, yielding 417.8 yards per game. Their offense had been solid enough as they average 23.5 PPG while giving up 26.3 PPG. In the first half though it is a different story as Cleveland is averaging 9.3 first half points while allowing 11.3 in the first half.

The Rams have been sluggish on offense all season, especially in the first half as they are averaging only 6.5 on offense at home while allowing 9.5 first half points. I anticipate a low scoring first half supported by the following system and the O/U is 21.5 points.

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • Play road teams under the total in the first half when the O/U is between 18 and 21 points in a game involving two poor teams who are out gained by 40 to 100 YPG, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This system is 06–32 = 84% to the under in the first half since 1983. My NFL Game of the Week is for the Cleveland Browns and the Louis Rams to stay under –21 points in the first half.
     

 

NFL Week 6 Game of the Week

San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 ET

Aaron Rodgers was intercepted twice plus he lost a fumble last week, that was the bad news, but, the good news was... cornerback Quinten Rollins returned an interception 45 yards for a score and the Packers’ defense picked off three more passes while winning and covering, (24-10) vs. The Rams.

While the offense receives the majority of the teams accolades, the defense is playing fantastic as well. The pack has picked off 8 INT’s and sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times.

This doesn’t bode well for a San Diego offensive line who is dealing with injuries. Having said that, as good as Aaron Rodgers’ numbers are, it is Phillip Rivers who leads the league in yards at 1,613 plus the Chargers are ranked #2 in passing YPG at 318 and #3 in offense at 410 yards per game. Another plus for San Diego this week is the return of Antonio gates, (2 touchdown catches last week.)

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • Even though they are a double digit favorite, I can’t back the Chargers in this game so I will look towards the total.
  • San Diego is off a Monday game and on a road trip for a short week, these games have a strong tendency to the over at 16–02 the past four seasons.
  • Green Bay is 55–31 to the over vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game.
  • San Diego is 13–02 to the over when off back-to-back home games and then on the road.
  • Green Bay is 32–17 to the over vs. poor rushing defenses, (teams allowing 130 or more rushing yards per game.
  • The Chargers are 29–15 to the over in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their last game.
  • The Packers are 33–14 to the over after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games.
  • San Diego is 58–35 to the over in non-conference games.
  • When we play on any team with a +7 or more point differential, (Packers,) over the total against the total when playing a foe with a differential of –3 to –7, after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games we are 28–06 and 82% to the over the past 10 seasons.
  • Greg’s NFL Game of the Week is for the Chargers/Packers to sail over the total of 50 points –116.

 

 

NFL Week 5 Bonus Game of the Week, (posted at EveryEdge.com)

Arizona Cardinals –2.5 @ Detroit Lions, O/U at 44.5, (4:05 ET)

Last week’s win improves my NFL EE picks and systems to a record of 6–1 ATS. Onto to this week’s selection.

Last week the Cardinals dropped their first game of the year to the Rams as 7 point home chalk. They had difficulties in the Red Zone and kicked 5 field goals while scoring one touchdown is a 24–22 loss. The Cardinals are still averaging 39.0 points in the last three weeks and overall they’re averaging 37.0 PPG this season, trailing only New England at 39.6 PPG. Even after last week’s loss, the Cardinals are one of six teams with a 100% Red Zone scoring efficiency and their 70.6% touchdown rate ranks them sixth. Arizona is ranked fourth in total offense averaging 405.0 YPG and is matched up vs. a Lions team that is #25 in total defense allowing an average of 383 YPG.

Even though Arizona is on the road, this line seems suspiciously low at –2.5 considering we have a 3–1 team facing an 0–4 opponent and when considering the futility of Detroit’s offense a total of 44.5 appears to be a little on the high side. Detroit has score a combined 38 points in their last three games and the Lions’ 75.0% Red Zone scoring efficiency ranks 27th, and its eight Red Zone drives are tied with Chicago for the NFL's fewest, hence, the Lions rank in the bottom four in league scoring, averaging16.5 PPG, as well as total offense, averaging 292.8 YPG.

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • The Lions are 16–04 to the over in home games following a road cover where the team lost as an underdog.
  • Carson Palmer is 20–9 to the over as a favorite.
  • Detroit is 12–03 to the over after gaining less than 100 yards rushing in four consecutive games.
  • Arizona is 44–27 to the over vs. poor offensive teams who are scoring 17 or less points per game.
  • Coach Arians is 12–04 to the over when his team is favored.
  • These two teams are 5–1 to the over in their last 6 games played in Detroit.
  • After being outrushed by their opponents by an average of 60 or more yards per game, (Lions,) and after gaining less than 100 rushing yards rushing yards in two straight games, play the over. This system is 63–30 = 68% to the over the past decade.
  • Following a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, play road teams winning between  60-75% or more of their games on the season to sail over the total. This system is 27–06 = 82% to the over the last 10 seasons.
  • My EveryEdge NFL Game of the Week is for the Cardinals and Lions to sail over 44.5 points.

 

NFL Week 5 Game of the Week

Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 ET

The 1–3 Chicago Bears travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs, who are also 1–3 straight up and that is where the similarity ends! Kansas City has lost to Denver, Green Bay and Cincinnati and those three teams are 12–0 straight up. The Bears won last week at home vs. a Raiders team that is now 1–6 straight up and ATS as a road favorite since 2003.

The line on this game as of this update is –8.5 to –9 which is a non factor as –7 and then –10 are the two numbers that are key regardless of where they kick the extra point from.

Each team is allowing 30+ points per game and in their only road game, in week 3, Chicago faced the 0–2 Seahawks on a Monday night when Kam Chancellor returned to Seattle’s line-up. That result was 23–00 in favor of the home team. Did you know that Seattle has not allowed an offensive touchdown at home in the second half in their last six regular season home games? You do now! I make this point as everyone knows that Seattle is legendary as the 12th man definitely gives the Seahawks an edge at home…but, according to the “Guinness Book of Whatever,” Kansas City has the noisiest or more boisterous home field crowd with regards to volume and the current living original members of The Who would like to attest to that fact.

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • Kansas City has a huge special teams’ edge at #6 vs. the Bears ranking of #32.
  • In my 4.5 STAR BEST BET on the Cardinals at Chicago in week 2 my analysis on pitiful Bears’ special teams play rang true, (which was also based on last seasons’ special teams results,) as Arizona returned the opening kick-off for a touchdown.
  • Teams that have sailed over the total in their first 4 games have been bankroll busters in game 5 and the Bears will be without their only legit wide receiver as Jeffery is on the shelf yet again. So why is this total sitting at 45? Is it because each team allows the identical amount of PPG at 31.8?
  • I think not, as recreational Sunday gamblers love favorites and the over even though the Bears have an offense that is inept and Kansas City is reeling with three straight loses, albeit against team that are 12-0. Teams that have played over the total, (Chiefs,) in the first four weeks have a strong tendency towards the under in week 5 in particular situations.
  • Without giving up the state secrets as to who scores what based on previous games in certain scenarios as well as at this current juncture of the season, I will simply say this, I’ve invested $220.00 to win $200.00 on the Kansas City teams total to go over the number of 27 points as my NFL Game of the Week, (lost.)

 

 

NFL Week 4 Game of the WEEK, Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons, 1:00

Former defensive head coach and first year Falcon’s coach, Dan Quinn has Atlanta off to an impressive 3–0 start. Their never say attitude has served them well through the first 3 weeks as they have trailed in the fourth quarter in every game. Last week they defeated a Cowboys team without Romo and Bryant. In week 2 the Giants imploded yet again and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory! In week 1 they took it to the Eagles at home on Monday night, an Eagles team that is out of sync averaging a meager 19.3 PPG on offense.

In 2014 the Falcons were ranked #32 in defending the pass and it isn’t much better this season as they are #29 plus they are ranked in the bottom six in overall yards allowed. What team takes the least amount of time in getting their plays off? No, it’s not the Eagles, the correct answer is the Texans at 21.55 seconds.

Houston ranks in the top 12 in both offensive yards gained as well as allowing the fewest yards. The Falcons gave up 295 yards and 4 touchdowns in the first half before limiting Dallas to 52 yards and no points in the second half. Houston brings a better offense into this game compared to what Dallas offered last week.

Atlanta is first in the conference in yards gained per game at 411.7 but Houston is no slouch either.

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • The Falcons are 1-7 ATS at home off back-to-back home games.
  • Ryan Mallett is 6-3 ATS as a starter.
  • Atlanta is 1-9 ATS against teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers per game on the season.
  • The Falcons are off three consecutive ATS covers and that inflates the line ever so slightly. I make this line at –4. I note the Falcons when playing at home off three ATS covers are 0–17 ATS.
  • Houston is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after gaining 350 or more combined yards.
  • Atlanta is 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Play against home teams averaging 370 or more YPG when playing against a good offensive team averaging 335 to 370 YPG, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This system is 23–05 = 82% ATS when playing against Atlanta.
  • My NFL Game of the Week is on the Houston Texans at +6, (lost.)

 

NFL Opinion Wager

Thursday at 8:30 ET

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

The NFL went to a 16 game schedule at the start of the 1978 season. Since then,164 teams started the season at 0–3. How many of those 164 teams made the playoffs? The answer is five teams. Which one of those five teams was the last to start at 0–3 and make the post season? That answer is the 1998 Buffalo Bills team. No team has ever started 0–4 and made the post season.

Of the four remaining winless teams, only Chicago and New Orleans are at home and both their starting quarterbacks are out as well as Dallas' starter, Tony Romo.

Tonight's line would have favored the Steelers by 6 to 6.5 points if Ben Roethlisberger had been under center. Such is not the case and Pittsburgh is +3 –115 with Michael Vick getting the start. Vick started three games last season, (1–2.) His lone victory was with the Jets against the Steelers.

I’ll say “over” the total as to how many times the NFL Network will say “game manager” or manage the game!

Baltimore has struggled since losing star linebacker Terrell Suggs to a season-ending injury at Denver in week 1, (a 19–13 loss.) In their game at Oakland in week 2 and when hosting Cincinnati last week, the Ravens allowed a combined 65 points and 723 passing yards. Baltimore’s in uncharted waters as they’ve never started a season at 0–3.

Penalties have also hindered the Ravens as they have been flagged 23 times in the past two games plus in this black and blue AFC North Division, their rushing game has gone south as they’re averaging 3.3 YPC.

One bright spot has been Joe Flacco's previous performances vs. Pittsburgh as he has tossed 13 touchdowns vs. 2 interceptions while winning six of the last nine against the Steelers.

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • Baltimore is 8–20 ATS in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.
  • The Steelers are 70–48 as an underdog.
  • The Ravens are 2–6 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
  • Pittsburgh is 6–1–1 ATS in their last 8 games and 7–2–1 to the over in their last 10.
  • Play against all teams with a first half defense that allows 14 or more points per game after scoring 3 points or less in their last game, when the line is + or –3 points, (applies to the Ravens.) This system is 30–08 = 79% ATS the past decade when playing against Baltimore.
  • After allowing 3 or less points in the first half in their last game, play any team over the total when the O/U is between 42.5 and 49 points, (Steelers,) and said team is outscoring their opponents by 4 or more points per game. This system is 51–23 = 69% to the over the past five seasons.
  • In the first month of the season and following a straight up loss as a home favorite, (applies to the Ravens,) play road teams over the total. This system is 43–17 = 72% to the over the past 10 seasons.
  • I have not played the over as the number is 43.5 at all my "outs.". Keep in mind that 43 is a key number if you are considering a wager on the over. Seven out of their last 10 meetings have produced a combined 42 or more points. If this total moves down to 41.5 I would make a play on the over at 41.
  • Five of the last seven games have been decided by 3 or less points so +3 is a key number for me tonight.
  • As a recreational play only, I've invested $161.00 to win $140.00 on the Pittsburgh Steelers at +3 -115. I also have an opinion on the over at 43. -117, (PUSH, 20-23.)

 

 

NFL Week 3 Bonus game of the Week, 4:25 ET

Chicago Bears at Seatle Seahawks

(Posted on the home page of EveryEdge.com)

There are nine teams that have started the season at 0–2 and three of those nine winless teams recently played in and won a Super Bowl, Seattle the New York Giants and Indianapolis. Of those nine winless teams, sic of them made the playoffs last season. Looking back through the years, only 12% of the teams that started the season at 0–2 have advance to the post season since 1990.

Three teams started this season at 0–2 and made the playoffs, but more impressively, those three teams eventually won the Super Bowl? Do you know what three teams? The answer’s at the end of this column.

Seahawks fans do not despair

Pete Carroll has not fared well coaching Seattle on the road as the team is only 19–23, they do their best work at home. This week they host the winless Bears and the following week they are featured on Monday night vs. the Lions, who are 0–2 and hosting a tough opponent this Sunday, the Broncos.

Now for the good news, Kam Chancellor is back with the team. In their first two games this season, without Chancellor, the Seahawks allowed 79% completion on passes down field 15 or more yards totaling 269 yards in games one and two along with two touchdowns. Last season in games one and two, with Chancellor playing, Seattle held opponents to 64 yards in the identical scenario while allowing only one touchdown.

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • In all games that Russell Wilson has started, last week was the first time he lost by double digits.
  • Jimmy Klassen would love to have that problem as he is 1–17 as a starter, (4–14,) ATS. In those 17 starts the average margin of defeat in those 18 games is 30.2 vs. 13.4. That combined score is 43.6 which is bang on with the full game Over/Under total of 43.5 points.
  • The Bears are 15–29 to the under on the road when off back-to-back losses, average score is: Opponent 23.5 vs. Chicago 17.7, (1.2 combined points.)
  • Seattle is 0–6 to the under when home off a loss with an average score of Seattle 19.7 vs. opponent 12.0.
  • Chicago held their first two opponents to an average of 311 per game, special teams are a nemesis though.
  • The Bears are 4–10 to the under following a double-digit home loss.
  • Play teams that allowed an average of 90 or less rushing yards per game last season, (Seattle,) to play under the total when hosting a conference foe with an over/under between 42.5 to 49 points. This system is 0–3 to the under this season as well as 0–5 to the under the previous five seasons, 2–15 to the under in the past 10 seasons and 12–40 = 77% to the under since 1983. The average score in this system is 39 points which is better than a field goal lower than the current total of 43.5.

Answer to Trivia Question

So, what three teams started the season at 0–2 and ended up winning the Super Bowl?

  • The 1992 Cowboys, (when Emmitt Smith held out,) was the first of the three.
  • In 2001 Drew Bledsoe was injured in game 1, the man who replaced him was none other than Tom Brady.
  • In 2007 the New York Giants defeated the Patriots 17–14 in the Super Bowl as 12 point dogs and thus the Patriots chance at a perfect season ended, and the 1972 Miami Dolphins are internally grateful

My Every Edge Game of the Week Selection

My recommendation is for the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks to stay under the total of 43.5 points, (WON 26-00.)

 

NFL Week 3 Game of the Week

Buffalo Bills at Miami Miami Dolphins, 4:25 ET

Last week when hosting the Patriots, Buffalo’s defense allowed over 500 yards including 451 through the air. The Bills have also been called for a league high 25 penalties including 14 last week which resulted in 140 bonus yards for the Patriots. Buffalo has been good vs. the run but when you can’t stop the pass, are these numbers, (120 yards in two games,) a little misleading?

In a losing effort at Jacksonville, the Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill was able to pass for 359 yards. The Dolphins have been unable to stop the run through two games, last week they allowed 123 to the Jaguars and in week 1 at Washington the Redskins rushed for 161 yards. Ndamukong Suh, who signed a 114 million dollar contract has two tackles in two games. Suh will be matched up against Ritchie Incognito in this contest. This will be Incognito’s first game back at Miami since the kerfuffle between Jonathan Martin and him resulted in an eight game suspension and his release from the team.

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • Buffalo has faced two playoff teams from last year while Miami has played two bottom feeders to start the season, edge to the Bills.
  • Miami is 7–2 to the over in their last nine September games.
  • Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor is 9–4 straight up and ATS as a starter and his mobility could create problems for Miami’s defense. In the past three seasons Taylor’s 8–3 to the over with an average combined score of 49.4 PPG.
  • Taylor is also 7–4 ATS when the O/U is between 38 to 45 points.
  • Ryan Tannehill is 6–9 ATS as a home favorite and 2–4 ATS lifetime vs. Rex Ryan.
  • The Bills are 7–3 to the over in week 3.
  • Since 1992 Miami is 14–30 ATS and -19.0-units after a 2 game road trip.
  • Bills are 6–2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Miami is 13–26 ATS and -15.6-units in home games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. The average score was Miami 20.7 vs. opponents 20.4 or 41.1 PPG.
  • In the month of September, play against home teams where the line is + or –3 points when off a road loss. This system is 97- 54 = 64% ATS since 1983.
  • In the first month of the season, and off an upset loss as a home favorite, play road teams over the total. This system is 39–16 = 71% to the over the past 10 seasons.
  • I have a split wager on the Bills +3 -130 and the Bills +2.5 +102 as well as the Bills/Dolphins over 41 -124, (WON 41-14 and WON, 41-14 and over 41.)
     

 

NFL Week 2 Bonus Game of the Week, 1:00 ET

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins

(Posted on the home page of EveryEdge.com)

The Rams, fresh off an overtime victory while hosting the Seahawks, travel to FedEx Stadium to take on the Redskins. Nick Foles was 18 of 27 for 297 yards and one touchdown in his Rams debut. Foles went 2-2 as a starter against Washington when he played for the Eagles. Last season the Rams, (without Foles,) manhandled the Redskins at FedEx Field, (24–00.)

In last week’s game vs. the Seahawks, (34–31,) for St. Louis, the final score was a little misleading with regards to pure offense as there were three special teams touchdowns. Without those special teams’ scores a final of 44 combined points was obviously a lot closer to the O/U of 41.

Washington will be short handed on offense as receiver DeSean Jackson (hamstring) is out for 3 to 4 weeks and tight end Jordan Reed (quadriceps) is listed as questionable. He had seven catches last week vs. Miami for 63 yards including a touchdown. Washington handed the ball to RB Alfred Morris 25 times vs. the Dolphins and he responded with 121 rushing yards. The Redskins defense played well holding Miami to only 256 but were done in by their special teams as Jarvis Landry returned a punt 69 yards for a touchdown.

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • The Rams are 3–8 to the under in their last 11 road games.
  • These two teams have a history of staying under the total as they are 3–7 to the under in their last 10 have played under the number including the last four games played in Washington, (average combined scores of 28.3 points.)
  • The Rams are 2–6 to the under in their first road game and 1–8 to the under when off a home dog win.
  • Washington is 45–73 and +23.50-units to the under when an underdog of +3.5 to +9.5 points.
  • The Rams are 11–24 to the under when away and the O/U is between 38.5 and 42 points.
  • Cousins is 1–4 to the under when a home dog.
  • The Redskins are 2–5 to the under before a Thursday night game.
  • St. Louis is 0–5 to the under when away from home and playing an opponent with a losing straight up record.
  • Foles is 1–3 to the under in his four career games vs. the Redskins.
  • Rams head coach Fisher is 6–16 to the under in their next game when off a straight up underdog win with an average combined score of 36 PPG.
  • Redskins head coach Gruden was 1–4 to the under at home in his inaugural season vs. non division opponents.
  • After scoring 30 or more points, the Rams are 4–10 to the under in their next game.
  • In somewhat of an oddity, when NFC-East teams play NFC-West opponents, these games are on an amazing under streak of 1–15–1 to the under.
  • My EveryEdge NFL Game of the Week is for the St. Louis Rams and Washington Redskins to stay under the total of 41 points, (WINNER.)

 

NFL Week 2 Game of the Week, 1:00 ET

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers

Houston, off a home loss to the Chiefs, travel to Bank of America Stadium to take on the Carolina Panthers. One of the keys to this game will be the status of Luke Kuechly who is going through the league's protocol and it’s almost certain he won’t play in the Carolina’s home opener. He is the league's highest-paid middle linebacker after signing a five-year, $62 million extension earlier this month. Kuechly had a NFL best 473 tackles in his first three seasons. The absence of wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is impacting their passing game, as Cam Newton rarely looked down field in the opener. Nose tackle Star Lotulelei didn’t play because of  a foot injury and he is questionable today.

Carolina’s offensive line has problems last season as they finished 32 in pass blocking as well as 22 in run blocking. That’s not a great setup vs. a formidable pass rush by the likes of JJ Watt, 2014 top linebacker pick, Jadevon Clowney, ILB Brian Cushing and free agent signee Vince Wilfork.

View From the 50 Yard Line

  • Last season Houston finished on a 4–1 straight up run allowing an average of 16 PPG.
  • Carolina is 1–7 ATS in their last 8 home openers.
  • The Texans are 5–1 ATS in their last six road openers and have won six consecutive road games straight up.
  • Carolina is 2–5 ATS following an ATS win.
  • Houston has the edge in special teams, #4 vs. #24.
  • Ryan Mallet is 5–1 ATS as a starter the past three seasons as well as 3 – 0 straight up and ATS when away from home.
  • Cam Newton is 07–10 ATS when the total is between 35.5 to 42.5 at home.
  • Check out the 80%+ system supporting a play on Houston on the home page in the NFL Systems section.
  • My NFL Game of the Week is on the Houston Texans at +3, (lost.)

 

NFL Week 1 Bonus Game of the Week, 1:00 ET,

Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins

(Posted on the home page of EverEdge.com)

Three teams surrendered 46 scrimmage touchdowns last year, those teams were Washington, Chicago and Oakland, with all three tied for the league's worst record in futility. Of those three less than stellar defenses, my focus pertains to the Dolphins/Redskins game.

It is never an easy task when opening with back-to-back road games but Miami faces that challenge as the travel to Jacksonville in week 2 while Washington hosts the Rams.

I have looked at all the variables as to an Inter-Conference road favorite opening on the road in week 1 before playing on the road again in week 2 and then looked at the straight up records of the two teams Miami is playing with regards to last year.

Then I looked at the schedule for the Dolphins in week 3 at home, (it’s a division game vs. the Bills,) and then in week 5 they play another game vs. the Jets.

Think about this, before the Bills play the Colts at home  and then face the Patriots at home in week 2, what would you make the line in the Bills at Dolphins game in week?

Buffalo is taking on the two teams that played in the Conference finals last year while the Dolphins are playing two sad sack teams, based on last years’ results.

Variables

If the Bills split straight up, winning vs. the Colts and lose a close one to the Patriots while Miami throttles both the Redskins and Jaguars, what would you make the week 3 line at when Buffalo plays in Miami?

Each one of these teams are “popular” TV analyst picks to make the playoffs. The line on this game could vary by as much as 3.5 points depending on how these two games play out for each team.

If Miami crushes the Redskins and the Jaguars and the Bills lose to the Colts and the Patriots by 7 or more points, this line would be –6.5 points, (not taking into account injuries.)

If Buffalo were to win both games straight up and Miami went 2–0 vs. Washington and Jacksonville, this line would still be at 3 or –3.5 as long as Miami put a beat down on both teams.

The Dolphins have a week 4 contest in London England. I’ve researched how all teams do before going across the pond!

I’ve also looked at the history of the Bills and Jets, (when Rex coached NYJ,) vs. Miami, all those variables, and the most intriguing scenario to me would be the total in this game. Whatever line the books put up on this game, the most interesting scenario to me would be the total. To be continued

Dolphins at Redskins, Miami –3 –129 and –3.5 -105.

  • Washington’s offensive line struggled in the preseason, not a good situation when you are facing Ndamukong Suh.
  • Kirk Cousins is 0–5 straight up as a starter at home and 1–4 ATS.
  • Coach Gruden is 3–11 ATS when the O/U is between 42.5 and 49.
  • When you play against a home team in a non conference game when the line is + or –3 points, that had a good offense last season, (averaging 335 or more YPG,) we are 23–05 = 82% ATS when playing against the home team and backing the Dolphins.
  • If you are so inclined to wager on this game I suggest an evenly split wager on the Dolphins at –3 –129 as well as –3.5 at –105 and thus averaging your juice down to –117, (WINNER.)

 

NFL Game of the Week, 1:00 ET

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

This total has moved down slightly and is presently sitting at 41. My initial take on this game is this, Kansas City has a home game with division rival Denver, next Thursday. If I was Andy Reid I would like to shorten this game and get out healthy, hence an under is my initial thought on this contest.

So, I began digging and found some data that supports my initial hunch on the under.

The Texans return Jadeveon Clowney and of course J. J. Watt, the defensive player of the year,  returns. The Texans also have an upgrade on defense as Vince Wilfork comes over from New England. The Texans are without start running back Adrian Foster so the duties will fall onto Alfred Blue who rushed for 528 yards as a rookie, including 280 in three starts when Foster was out. The noticeable loss on offense is Andre Johnson.

As for the Chiefs, their star on offense is running back Jamaal Charles who rushed for 1,000+ yards last season. Alex Smith has been called a game manager and he “dinks and dunks” the ball methodically down the field with short passes. He did not have one touchdown pass to a wide receiver all year in 2014.

Each team is solid on defense and I anticipate a low scoring game.

View From the 50 yard Line

  • Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith is 6–15 to the under when a road underdog.
  • The Texans are 3–7 to the under in their last 10 games in week 1.
  • The Chiefs are 2–8 to the under in their last 8 games in September.
  • Houston allowed the second fewest points in the league (281) and ranked seventh with 330.5 yards allowed per game.
  • When we play Conference teams that won between 51% to 61% of their games last season, (applies to the Chiefs and Texans,) we are 22–50 = 69.4% to the under since 1983. The average total in this system is 41 vs. an average combined score of 36 PPG.
  • My NFL Game of the Week for the opening weekend is for the Chiefs and Texans to stay under 41 points, (Lost.)

 

NFL Preseason Week 4 Game of the Week

San Diego at San Francisco 49ers, 10:00 ET

The 49ers have played three preseason games with all three staying well under the total. The scores being, 10–23 at Houston, 23–06 when hosting Dallas and 12–19 last week, losing at Denver.

The Chargers have won 17–07 hosting Dallas, 22–19 at Arizona and lost last week 16–15 to the Seahawks.

In a preseason game where the regular season starters will be invisible, I expect a penalty filled “let’s get through this” type of game producing a very low score.

Last season these two met in week 3 with the 49ers prevailing at home 21–07 with the score staying well under 42 points.

View from the 50 yard Line

  • When the over/under is between 35.5 to 42 points, play a team under the total, (applies to the Chargers,) after a game where they forced no turnovers and now playing against an opponent that’s off a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. This system is 9–28 = 76% to the under the past five seasons. The average total was 39 vs. an average combined score of 32 points.
  • I’ve invested $216.00 to win $200.00 on the Chargers and 49ers to stay under 36.5 points as my week 4 preseason game of the Week, (WINNER.)
     

 

NFL Preseason Week 3 Game of the Week by Greg Dempson

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys, 7:00 ET

In his first season as Minnesota’s head coach Mike Zimmer went 4–0 straight up and 3–1 ATS. He’s followed that up with a 3–0 straight up and ATS mark in his second season with tonight’s game plus the week 4 contest pending.

As for head coach Jason Garrett, he is the exact opposite. He is 0–2 ATS this season and his overall preseason ATS record is 5–13–1 ATS.

Garrett said, “Our starters will play the most in this game that they will in any of the preseason games, so it’ll be a good opportunity for them to get their feet underneath them a little bit and just to play some football.”

Pro Bowlers Dez Bryant, (receiver,) and right guard Zack Martin will likely be held out. All other starters and key skill players on offense should be available. Their defense will be without middle linebacker Rolando McClain, his replacement in the middle is Anthony Hitchens. Starting cornerback Orlando Scandrick is lost for the season with a torn ACL/MCL.

View from the 50 Yard Line

  • Darren McFadden will see lots of action tonight, I expect Dallas to pound the rock in this game.
  • This will be a good test for the Vikings defensive starters, will they be able to stop the run ground game this evening?
  • I expect the Vikings to attack the secondary and Bridgewater to air it out a fair amount in the first half.
  • Dallas coach Garrett is 0–10 ATS when the O/U is between 35.5 and 42 points.
  • Play on road teams off two exact preseason home wins who are undefeated in the preseason. This system is 32–12 = 73% ATS since 1993.
  • My NFL Game of the Week for week 3 is on the Vikings at +2 –105, (WINNER.)

 

NFL Preseason Week 2, 8:00 ET

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings

Head coach Zimmer is 6–0 straight up, (5–1 ATS) in preseason play since becoming Minnesota's head coach. They have the better quarterback rotation in tonight’s game, Bridgewater, Hill and Kafka, (or Kafka and Hill after Bridgewater.) The Vikings will rotate their starters in and out of the line-up this evening, not just restrict them to a first quarter or first half of play.

View from the 50 Yard Line

  • I make tonight’s line at –5 points so there is no real line value in the full game odds.
  • Last season Minnesota won the first half by a score of 10–0. The Raiders come into tonight’s game off a week 1 home win vs. the Rams, 19–03.
  • Don’t expect many points in the entire game, last years’ score was 10–06 for Minnesota, as only 6 points were scored in the second half. The last three games between these two teams stayed under the total.
  • The Raiders are 12–20 ATS in their second preseason game but Jack Del Rio is 5–0 ATS as an underdog when off a straight up and ATS win in his previous game.
  • I am backing the Vikings in the first half tonight supported by the following system, play on first half home favorites of –2 to –6 points after gaining 7 or more passing yards per attempt in their last game, (applies to the Vikings.) This system is 33–11 = 75% ATS the past 10 seasons. My NFL Preseason week 2 game of the Week is on the Minnesota Vikings at -3 in the first half. To view how much I've invested in tonight's first half, visit the Preseason Teasers and Prop Investments area of the articles section, (WINNER.)

 

NFL Week 1 for Saturday August 15 at 10:00 ET 

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks -4.5, (O/U) 37

On the flight home to Seattle after their Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, a flight attendant asked Russell Wilson if he would like a beverage, he said, “No, I’ll just pass!” For Seattle fans it was a heartbreaking loss and it also cost me some cash as I backed the Seahawks.

Seattle’s head coach Pete Carroll likes to win in the preseason and I note he’s 25–11–1 = 69% ATS with Seattle sailing over the totals at a 15–09 for a 62.5% clip when betting the over in their last 24 preseason games.

The Seahawks’ biggest acquisition in the off-season was tight end Jimmy Graham. They also added veteran cornerback Will Blackmore, nose tackle Ahtyba Rubin and cornerback Ruben Williams. Their biggest loss was center Max Unger who went to the Saints in the Graham trade. Seattle also lost veterans Zach Miller, (tight end,) plus offensive linebackers O’Brien Schofield and Malcolm Smith as well as cornerback Byron Maxwell and guard James Carpenter and safety Jeron Johnson.

The Broncos welcome a former Bronco quarterback, Gary Kubiak, only this time he is their head coach. Kubiak has been money in the bank in the NFL preseason when he coached the Texans going a stellar 19–11–2 = 63% ATS with an even better record on totals going 21–09–02 = 70% when playing the over.

View from the 50 Yard Line

  • This line opened with Seattle at –6 and the O/U at 36.5. The current line is –4.5 at –110 or –4 at –118 awhile the total is now a firm 37, lines available at 5Dimes.
  • These two met in Denver in week 1 of the preseason last year and Denver, as a small home dog of +1, defeated Seattle 21–16 with the game staying under the closing total of 37.5 points but pushed if you bet it earlier in the week when the total was at 37.
  • In 2013 Seattle hosted the Broncos in week 2 and destroyed Denver as 5 point favorites, 40–10, with the game sailing over the total of 41.5.
  • Since Pete Carroll became Seattle's head coach he has put a strong emphasis on winning in the preseason, especially at home where he is 7-1 ATS in eight preseason home games. His only loss was vs. the Vikings in his first game during his first season as Seattle's head coach by a score of, (20-07.) Since then, the Seahawks have won by scores of 27-17, vs. the Titans and 21-03 hosting the Raiders in 2012. In their two home games in the 2013 preseason Seattle won by scores of 40-10, (vs. Denver,) and 22-6 hosting Oakland. Last season Seattle won their two exhibition games by scores of 41-14 vs. the San Diego and 34-06 vs. Chicago. In their eight preseason games Seattle has outscored their opposition by an average score of 31.6 to 7.8 points per game.
  • Factor in their 12th man advantage as CenturyLink Field as the best home field advantage in the NFL plus a desire to put that ugly loss in the Super Bowl behind them, it is my firm belief that Seattle wins and covers this game with ease.
  • The line opened at -6 as was as low as -4 -118 at 5Dimes. The current line I see is -5 -105.
  • My NFL Game of the Night is on the Seattle Seahawks at -5 points, (Lost.)